IS GOV. DESANTIS THE X-FACTOR IN TRUMP'S 2020 PRESIDENTIAL RE-ELECTION BID?

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We’re still months away from the start of hurricane season, but Governor Ron DeSantis is already taking Florida by storm.  A recent Mason-Dixon poll has the governor at a 62 percent approval rating, making him one of the most popular governors in the nation.

DeSantis’s unexpected high approvals with republicans/democrats, men/women and Hispanics/African Americans raises the question on whether the governor has coat-tails for President Trump.  The 2020 presidential election is not too far away and it’s hard to ignore a 62 percent approval rating in a battleground state that will likely determine the next President of the United States. 

The Influential asked Florida’s top politicos Roger Stone, Susie Wiles, DJ Johnson, Elnatan Rudolph and Steven Schale to weigh in on this potential beginning of a Red Wave in Florida. 

Each politico was asked to answer one question:  Does Gov. DeSantis’s 62 percent approval rating create electoral coat-tails for President Trump in Florida?

ROGER STONE

Governor DeSantis has provided a graphic example of how President Trump can score with traditional democratic voter groups, win Florida and re-election. The Governor’s leadership in ensuring broader access to the medicinal marijuana, overwhelmingly approved by Florida voters, thanks to the bold initiative and courage of John Morgan, is a key factor in the Governor’s popularity.

The decision to abandon the obstructionism of Rick Scott and work with the Republicans in the legislature to insure that millions of Floridians have access to medicine, far superior to opioids, shows the way forward for the President who supported the states’ rights to legalize medicinal marijuana in his 2016 campaign, can now remove cannabis from the schedule 1 listing of the DEA.  I have urged him to put some muscle behind Senator Cory Gardner’s bill to protect state legalized marijuana (which the President has already endorsed ), support adequate funding for broader testing of the medical benefits of cannabis, and most importantly declare his intention to work with Democrats like Senator Cory Booker and Republicans like Congressman Matt Gaetz for total federal legalization-subject to regulation by the states.

These actions would make FLORIDA red in 2020.

Roger Stone is a Legend in the Political Consulting Community.  As a Republican Operative Going Back to the Days of President Nixon, Roger Counseled Several Presidents to Include Presidential Candidate Donald Trump in 2016.

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SUSIE WILES

The beneficiaries of Governor DeSantis' exceedingly strong start are, most importantly, the citizens of Florida.  His attention to the issues that matter most, his energy and commitment to making Florida better and his breath of focus have rightly earned him recognition as one of the nation's brightest stars.  Clearly, as a Republican who proudly supports the many ways President Trump's policies benefit Floridians, Governor DeSantis' leadership will stand the President's reelection effort in good stead as we approach 2020. 

A GOP Governor who is popular with traditional and non-traditional demographic groups and a state that’s showing positive movement in so many ways bodes well for President Trump as we head into the next election cycle. I cannot think of ways the stars could be better aligned.

Susie Wiles is a Veteran Florida Operative who Chaired the DeSantis Campaign in 2018.  Wiles was Donald Trump’s Chief Strategist in Florida during the 2016 Presidential Campaign, as well as Rick Scott’s Campaign Manager during his 2010 gubernatorial bid. 

DAVID “DJ” JOHNSON

Governor DeSantis is proving that governing from a right-center perspective is popular with the majority of the state, and that generally transfers to the rest of the ticket. However, as we learned with Governor Jeb Bush and his brother during the 2000 Presidential campaign, popularity has limited transferability with the independent voters in Florida at a Presidential level.

The President’s re-election campaign will certainly benefit from his alliance with the Governor, just as the Governor did famously from President’s solid endorsement in the ’18 cycle. The next twelve months-plus will mark the impact of the transferability factor.

David “DJ” Johnson is a former RPOF Executive Director and Republican Political Consultant.

ELNATAN “EL” RUDOLPH

Governor DeSantis is off to a very strong start, and by all indications he will continue on this course. He is hitting all across the spectrum by playing to Republicans, Democrats and Independents alike. It certainly can’t hurt President Trump that the Governor is strong and that the RPOF is working well. I don’t know that it will have coattails to the President. 

Elnatan “El” Rudolph is Managing Director of Converge GPS.

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STEVEN SCHALE

If you believe the past is prologue, DeSantis early numbers really don’t mean anything.  Since Florida became a battleground state in 1992, the party not holding the Governor’s mansion has won 3 of the 7 contests:  Bush 92 (Dem Gov), Obama 08/12 (GOP Gov), including 08 when the Republican Governor had DeSantis like numbers.

Furthermore, when it comes to Hispanics, we saw in 16 huge deltas between Rubio and Trump, showing Trump performance really wasn’t impacted by a more popular Republican on the ballot - so it’s even more unlikely they will be impacted by one off of them.

Where having the Gov office matters:  the party in power typically can raise more for basic party infrastructure, and if DeSantis leans in for RPOF, it can help them get a head start on organizing.

But here’s the thing: It’s just gonna be close. Florida is just structurally very balanced right now, and there isn’t much that’s going to change that between now and Nov 2020. The last three Gov races, and last two Pres races have all been decided by a point.  It’s going to come down to who my party nominates, and whether Trump can find the discipline he found late in 16.  

 -  Steven Schale is a Democratic Strategist.

CONCLUSION

Floridians are not used to seeing such high approval numbers for governor in a very long time: Former Governor Rick Scott rarely, if ever, approached 50 percent on a good poll. This, in part, has underwritten a majority consensus among Florida’s top politicos that Trump will benefit from Governor DeSantis’s center-right governance. 

If this proves to be the case over the next 18 months, then President Trump’s endorsement of Gov. DeSantis will have paid dividends, not just for his re-election bid for President, but for the citizens of Florida. 

WHO IS PATRICK SLEVIN?

Patrick Slevin is a former Florida mayor.  He is a two-time winner of the PRSA Silver Anvil Award of Excellence for Crisis & Issues Management.  Influence Magazine named Slevin one of the "Great Communicators".  Slevin has been recognized by Campaigns & Elections Magazine as one of the nation’s top political “Movers’ & Shakers".  He is head of Florida-based SL7 Consulting. www.PatrickSlevin.com.

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